WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections NewsAnalysis & EditorialsCleveland Indians prospects & minor leaguesGame RecapsTransactionsAnalysis & EditorialsRe-introducing 3WAR as a way to measure player valueNew Lou Brock Jersey ,38commentsThe average of the three most popular wins above replacement models confirms that the Indians have four aces.Plutko’s 2018 is more in line with what Fangraphs and Baseball Reference report. Baseball Prospectus did not like him one bit. It’s difficult to draw many conclusions based on 70 IP mixed between the bullpen and the rotation, but it’s something too keep an eye on next season. I am surprised to see Clevinger close the gap between himself and Carrasco in 3WAR, and overall the top four are more equal in value than I expected to find. This is a great starting rotation regardless of how you slice the numbers. 5 WAR is roughly equivalent to All-Star value for starters and position players, and 3WAR suggests that the Indians essentially have four of them. There aren’t really any breaks for a hitter to look forward to when facing the Indians’ starters. Next time: ProjectionsNow that we’ve seen what 3WAR says about the starting rotations 2018, I’d like to take the same approach to the various projection systems available and see what 2019 might look like. Assuming everything goes swimmingly I’d like to keep this up and do it for the bullpen and then the position players, too. Bryce Harper is the early favorite for the 2018 Home Run Derby Ken Boyer Jersey , but only one favorite has won since 2010.Over the past eight years, the betting odds have not been predictive of Derby success.The MLB All-Star break is almost upon us, which means the Home Run Derby is just around the corner. The bracket for Monday鈥檚 event (8 p.m. ET) has been revealed.Bryce Harper (+300) is the early favorite. The Washington Nationals slugger is the only participant in this year鈥檚 field who has previous Derby experience (he was the runner-up in 2013 to Yoenis Cespedes) and is the most well-known among recreational bettors. Harper will be a popular public play, but going chalk in this event has been costly.According to SportsOddsHistory, only one favorite since 2010 has managed to cash tickets for gamblers — Giancarlo Stanton +330 in 2016. On average, the odds-on favorite has finished in fourth place. In fact http://www.stlouiscardinalsteamshop.com/authentic-marcell-ozuna-jersey , the betting market has done a poor job of predicting much about this longball-hitting event.Using the betting odds for each participant since 2010, I calculated the correlation coefficient to determine if there was a relationship between implied probabilities based on the betting odds and the finishing position of hitters as well as the number of home runs each slugger smacked during the Derby. A correlation coefficient of 1 indicates perfect correlation, -1 means there’s a perfect negative correlation and zero indicates no correlation.The correlation coefficient between the implied probability of a hitter winning and where the player finished in the standings is -0.31. The correlation coefficient between the implied probability of a hitter winning and the number of home runs he hit is 0.25. This tells us that the betting odds are not predictive of success.Home Run Derby 2018 Odds: Bryce Harper Favored to Win in D.C.Read nowSo, what鈥檚 a baseball junkie to do? For starters, bet anyone but the favorite.Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber each opened at +900. If you were lucky enough to bet on both before the odds moved, you are guaranteed to get one through to the next round when only four hitters will remain. As an added bonus Whitey Herzog Jersey , if you believe Harper is one of the most likely players to win it all, the Bregman/Schwarber winner won鈥檛 face him until the finals.Harper is the sexy pick, but sharp bettors will play the dogs in the Home Run Derby, as they do in most events.